- COP29 host to face 12.6% reduction in future GDP in 2070 under current NDC commitments.
- Climate Action Tracker describes Azerbaijan’s climate plan as “critically insufficient”.
- Study highlights top 10 most impacted countries from climate change in Eastern Europe.
- Findings put pressure on COP29 President Mukhtar Babayev to deliver strong outcome at summit.
- Christian Aid is calling on developed countries to deliver new climate finance, largely based on grants, to help vulnerable countries adapt to the impacts of climate change and fund their energy transition from dirty fossil fuels to clean renewables.
A new study has identified the 10 countries in Eastern Europe facing the biggest economic harm from future temperature rises – and COP29 host Azerbaijan tops the list.
The findings, published by Christian Aid in conjunction with economists at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, chart the reduction in future GDP of the top 10 most impacted countries in the region under two scenarios. The first, if the world delivers current national climate pledges, known as NDCs (which are projected to result in global heating of around 2.8C). The second scenario is if global heating is allowed to reach 2C.
The report, Baking Baku: The economic impact of climate change on Eastern Europe, shows that in the current NDC scenario, Azerbaijan faces an eyewatering reduction in future GDP of 8.5% by 2050 and a reduction of 12.6% in 2070. If temperature rise reaches 2C it will suffer less harm but still more than a 6% reduction in GDP in both 2050 and 2070.
Azerbaijan is one of Europe’s major fossil fuel producers yet has been singled out as one of the very few countries in the world to weaken their NDC in contravention of the Paris Agreement’s Article 4.3 which says each NDC will be more ambitious than the previous one. Last month Climate Action Tracker assessed Azerbaijan’s climate policies as “critically insufficient”. It said: “Azerbaijan appears to have abandoned its 2030 emissions target, moving backward instead of forward on climate action. Its renewable energy targets remain weak.”
Among the climate impacts facing the region are hotter temperatures, especially in the summer, drought, forest fires and more erratic precipitation leading to severe flooding. These will negatively impact agriculture, food security, tourism, human health and could lead to increased tensions over water supplies.
In Azerbaijan specifically, a World Bank report from 2023, warned Azerbaijan’s key agriculture sector will soon be constrained by more frequent and severe adverse climate impacts while Azerbaijan's Caspian Sea, the world's largest lake, is also coming under pressure from climate change.
The other countries in Eastern Europe facing the most severe GDP hit due to climate change are Montenegro, Albania, Croatia, Georgia, Serbia, Hungary, Bulgaria, North Macedonia and Bosnia & Herzegovina.
Javid Gara, environmental activist and founder of Ecofront Azerbaijan, said:
“Azerbaijan is facing the impact of the climate crisis on many fronts. More frequent and severe droughts make traditional farming more challenging. Especially in mountainous areas where communities rely on animal farming it is problematic since they don’t have many options to diversify their farming activities. This accelerates migration from these villages.
“Droughts are creating severe water scarcity problems for local communities and small farmers especially in downstream areas of the Kur River. Reduced snowfall and overall water scarcity increases demand for costly infrastructure upgrades and construction of new reservoirs.
“The retreating Caspian Sea threatens the shipping industry which is the only access to the oceans of the world. This could require costly adjustments to infrastructure.”
Adriano Vinca, an economist at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Vienna, who helped coordinate the analysis, said:
“Climate change is the world’s biggest economic threat multiplier and this report shows the clear danger posed to the nations of Eastern Europe. This year’s host of the COP, Azerbaijan, is set to suffer more than any other nation in the region from rising temperatures. In particular its agriculture, which relies on a stable climate, is highly vulnerable.
“We’re currently seeing around 1.1C of global heating. Even if the current pledges are met, global average temperature rise blows way past the limits agreed in the Paris Agreement. Azerbaijan, as a major oil and gas producer, with currently very weak climate policies, has to take its share of the responsibility for the climate impacts threatening the region. As host of COP29 it has a unique opportunity to ensure the summit delivers strong outcomes on climate finance and emission reductions.”
Mariana Paoli, Christian Aid’s Global Advocacy Lead, said:
“The COP president has a crucial role in overseeing the negotiations and securing an ambitious agreement, including pushing developed countries to do what needs to be done to successfully tackle the climate crisis. This report shows that he will also be working to protect his own country’s economic future. Azerbaijan has a sorry record on climate change. By brokering the negotiations, Azerbaijan should lead by example and move from exacerbating the climate crisis to being part of the solution.
“This has been dubbed the ‘finance COP’. It’s vital that developed countries agree to deliver new climate finance, largely based on grants, to help vulnerable countries adapt to the impacts of climate change and fund their energy transition from dirty fossil fuels to clean renewables.”
Nugzar Kokhreidze, a climate campaigner in the region and Head of the Board of Climate Action Network Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia said:
“Without urgent action, climate change is coming for everyone, and that is true for people living in Central and Eastern Europe. This report outlines that the climate crisis is going to have a hugely damaging impact on our region and countries need to wake up. We're already seeing the impacts taking a toll at just 1.1C of global heating, so if we allow average temperatures to rise to 2C or above, the economic consequences will be hugely serious. The whole region, and in particular the COP29 host Azerbaijan, is going to bear the brunt of this harm. This is why it is vital that the COP29 President ensures this summit delivers a strong outcome on climate finance and helps accelerate the transition from the dirty energy of the past to the clean renewables of the future."
Dr James Rising, Assistant Professor at the University of Delaware, said:
"The new report by Christian Aid highlights the significant risks faced by Eastern Europe later in the century, but you do not have to wait 50 years to see these impacts. Already today, global warming is resulting in losses to economic output, agriculture, human health, ecosystems, and many other areas. According to the INFORM Climate Change indices, Azerbaijan is one of the countries most exposed to climate change, and future warming is going to increase its risks of droughts and epidemics. If anything, this report likely underestimates the true risks of climate change: focusing on gross domestic product leaves out crucial losses in areas outside of the market system, like biodiversity and quality of life."
Joanna Haigh, former Professor of Atmospheric Physics at Imperial College London, said:
“No part of the planet can escape the impacts of climate change, including Azerbaijan. It is truly a global problem with global solutions. Rising temperatures, extended droughts and severe flooding will bring much harm to Eastern Europe unless we accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels and make tackling the climate crisis an international priority. As COP29 hosts, Azerbaijan has a key role to play in ensuring the negotiations deliver a strong outcome in Baku. The election of Donald Trump only reinforces the need for the rest of the world to ensure global progress on climate action continues at pace.”
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